The Only Health Insurance Option Left

Less than two days after being released publicly, it appears that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's health insurance bill, the Better Care Reconciliation Act, is d.o.a.  Five senators have already announced their opposition to the bill as presently drafted.  A half-dozen or more have expressed concerns.  Since the doubters include both Tea Party types and moderates,  McConnell is in a bind.  If he offers compromises to win over the Tea Partiers, he will likely lose some moderates.  If he offers compromises to satisfy the moderates, he will likely lose some Tea Partiers.  It looks virtually impossible for him to get at least 50 votes. 

The Senate will vote soon on this bill--which is basically tax legislation that cuts taxes for the rich and funds those cuts by taking away health insurance coverage for a lot of mostly poor people--and it will either pass (unlikely) or fail (likely).  If it fails, what then?  Obamacare is struggling, with insurers pulling out of exchanges and premiums rising sometimes dramatically.  The Trump Administration and the Republican Congress have created so much uncertainty that health insurers apparently feel compelled to raise rates sharply.  Whether or not any replacement for Obamacare is passed, this uncertainty will remain, and rising premiums may force many people to drop insurance coverage. Thus, the number of people losing health insurance will rise under the Trump Administration even if Obamacare survives.

Forcing people to go uninsured is political anathema in America today.  Whether or not the Republicans like it, Obamacare established the baseline principle that all Americans are entitled to comprehensive health insurance coverage at an affordable cost.  Both Republican and Democratic voters subscribe to this principle, and legislators who violate the principle do so at the peril of their re-election.  But with Republican machinations making Obamacare increasingly unworkable, a replacement will have to be found.

Realistically, the only option left is a single payer system, with private insurance available as an optional supplement.  Private health insurance doesn't work well, especially when it comes to covering the poor, the sick (i.e., those with prior medical conditions) and the elderly.  That's why Obamacare is unwieldy and the Republican alternatives are worse.  We've already figured out that single payer is needed for the elderly, and established Medicare.  It works well.  Medicare can be supplemented by private insurance coverage and often is.  Sure, Medicare has long term funding issues.  But have you noticed how premiums demanded by private health insurers are going through the roof?   It's hard to believe that a government funded program would be more expensive.

Essentially all other advanced industrialized nations have single payer health insurance systems (or national health care, like the UK system), with per capita costs that are far lower than America's and better health outcomes overall.  No other advanced industrial nation has the extremely expensive and increasingly dysfunctional mish-mash of private coverage that America has.  Single payer systems are imperfect, and the availability of optional private supplements can ameliorate many of the imperfections.  The current Republican White House and Congress won't adopt a single payer system.  But their failure to do anything intelligent with health insurance coverage will push America toward the only realistic health insurance option remaining. 

How Comey is Winning the Credibility Battle With Trump

At first glance, you might think that President Trump and former FBI Director James Comey are at a standoff over who said what during their one-on-one meetings.  It looks like a he said/he said situation.  But Comey wrote memos about the conversations right afterwards.  These tilt the balance in favor of Comey.  While his critics might say his memos were self-serving, it's implausible to think he wove them from whole cloth.  The President doesn't appear to have any memos.

But the crucial factor would appear to be the issue of tape recordings.  The President alluded to recordings, saying "James Comey better hope there are no 'tapes' of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!"  Comey called Trump's hand by saying he hoped there were recordings.  The Secret Service has now said it doesn't have any recordings--and the Secret Service would be the organization that would handle the recordation of conversations in the White House.  See http://nypost.com/2017/06/12/secret-service-says-they-have-no-comey-tapes/.  If there are no recordings, that would mean that Trump tried to bluff Comey into silence by hinting untruthfully about recordings that don't exist.  Trump's bluff would only undermine his own credibility.  

Of course, it's possible Trump recorded the conversation on a personal device, such as a smart phone. But if he has a recording that contradicts Comey, he surely would have released it by now.  But he hasn't revealed any recording.  Thus, Trump can only have a recording that supports Comey, or he's erased that recording (which would indicate the recording hurt Trump), or he doesn't have a personal recording (which means he lied about there being one).  Whatever is the case, Comey's winning the credibility battle with Trump.

The Big Question For Donald Trump and the Russia Investigation

After James Comey's testimony before the Senate yesterday about President Trump wanting Comey to shut down the FBI's Russia investigation, the most important question is whether the President recorded his conversations with Comey.  If he did record one or more of those conversations, and the conversations tend to confirm Comey's testimony, the President will be in serious trouble.  It is possible to conclude from Comey's testimony that the President wanted to quash the FBI's Russia investigation, something that could amount to obstruction of justice.  Confirmation in recorded conversations could strengthen that conclusion, perhaps by a lot.

One thing's for dang sure:  Special Counsel Robert Mueller will seek any recordings of those and other relevant conversations.  We will find out sooner or later if the recordings exist.  We may also find out whether they once existed but were deleted or destroyed. If the recordings exist and support Comey's testimony, the President will have a big problem.  If the recordings once existed but have been erased or destroyed, the President will have a big problem.  If recordings never existed in the first place, the President would appear to be a liar for having suggested that they did exist, perhaps a liar trying to bluff Comey into silence.

The only good scenario is if the recordings exist and contradict Comey.  But if that were the case, President Trump would surely have released them already.