Batten Down the Hatches for the Dog Days

This could be a stormy summer. Like the mortgage debt crisis three years ago that blew up and froze the financial markets, there's a nontrivial chance the government debt crisis could do the same this summer. Government debt, normally the investment of last resort, is starting to look hinky. With respect to the federal debt ceiling, some Republicans in Congress seem intent on provoking a default in August. Biting the hands that feed us--i.e., stiffing investors in U.S. Treasury securities--hardly seems like a good idea for a debtor nation. But "smart politician" is virtually an oxymoron these days.

More than America, the Euro bloc lurches inexorably toward default. For the moment, Greece is the only nation that is likely to formally default. However, all Euro bloc members have pretty much assumed de facto responsibility for all the sovereign debt and bank debt of all member nations. So a default by Greece is, in effect, a default by the entire Euro bloc. Such a development would not be well-received in the financial markets. But Euro bloc leaders are divided about what to do, and progress toward true resolution is seen about as often as the ivory-billed woodpecker.

Although another financial crisis is a low probability event, the simultaneous dysfunction in Washington and Europe could make things go haywire in the dog days of this summer. After all, nothing has been done since the last credit crunch that would preclude another one this year. What to do?

Love cash. Have a cash lovefest. Build up your emergency fund and put it in a bank (making sure it's 100% covered by FDIC insurance). Avoid non-essential big purchases for the next few months to increase cash on hand.

Be cautious with money market funds. If U.S. Treasury securities actually default, money market funds might have to break the buck. A sudden spike in interest rates could reduce the value of their T-bills and impose losses on the funds. Although the extent of such losses is likely to be comparatively small, given the very short maturities that money market funds are supposed to hold, it's not impossible that a freeze-up in the Treasury securities market could result in money market losses and perhaps momentarily limit access to your account. This is a low probability event, and fund management companies would probably go to great lengths to avoid breaking the buck. But it happened once in 2008. If you are likely to need funds in a money market account in the near future, consider moving the necessary amount into a federally insured bank account in July if the debt ceiling mess remains unresolved.

Invest defensively. Now's not the best time to take a flier, except if you have mad money you can easily afford to lose. Note how the Nasdaq market has, in recent days, been falling proportionately faster than the Dow and the S&P 500. Many risk assets are falling, literally, out of favor. Be careful about diving into emerging markets. China's economy is slowing, and India's and Brazil's governmental yield curves are inverting (seen by some as a sign of impending recession).

Avoid unnecessary financial commitments. If you're thinking of making a major financial commitment, like buying an annuity or a whole life insurance policy, consider stepping back and waiting to see how things play out over the next few months. If, for example, you buy an annuity now, and Treasury yields rise sharply later this year because of a U.S. government default, you may effectively have lost money because you would have bought at today's low interest rates.

Line up credit lines now. Credit could evaporate if things go gonzo. While borrowing is to be avoided if at all possible during a financial crisis, there sometimes are pressing reasons to go into hock. Line up any loans you'll need. Since it's even possible a bank might terminate the unused portion of a line of credit if the sky falls, you may want to draw down on credit lines now if you are absolutely sure you'll need the money and have no other way to get it. Make damn sure you can repay what you draw down. And keep the loan funds in a bank account, not a money market fund.

All this may sound on par with suggestions to stock freeze dried food and bottled water, and to start a garden in your back yard. But we haven't had to rely on subsistence farming in more than a century. Just three years ago, credit was crunched and the financial system almost failed. As far as money goes, take nothing for granted.

The True Price of Affordable Loans

We all know it's a bad idea to let an eight-year old loose in a candy store. Temptation and self-restraint will be mismatched, and cavities, hyperactivity and weight gain will follow. Today's credit market is about the same.

The U.S. economy is awash in credit. Vast quantities of the stuff roam around in every direction, like the enormous herds of bison that swept across the prairies 150 years ago. The abundance of credit puffed up the real estate markets until they bubbled and popped. In the financial markets, the ready availability of credit has enabled hedge funds to accumulate vast investment portfolios funded by borrowed money, and more recently has financed a flurry of "private equity" deals, in which private investors and corporate managements buy up major public companies using credit that banks line up to provide. All this activity has pushed blue chip stocks to record levels. But are these prices sustainable? Only time will tell.

For consumers, there's no shortage of credit, either. Credit card offers in our daily mail kill entire forests. If you have any unused equity in your home, banks rush to offer home equity lines of credit to burn up that equity and convert it into debt payments for you. Car loans now have longer and longer terms in order to make them "affordable" (meaning small enough for you to pay each month). All of this comes at a price, and it isn't cheap.

Car loans illustrate the point. Back in the bad old days when grown men wore leisure suits, cars were usually sold with three-year loans. If you assume an interest rate of 6%, a three-year loan increases the dollar cost of the car by about 10%. For example, a $25,000 car ends up costing about $27,500.

Today, many car loans have terms of five to six years. A six year loan at 6.5% (rates on longer term loans are higher than rates on shorter term loans) will increase the total dollar cost of the car by about 20%. The same $25,000 car ends up costing in the range of $30,000. Of course, the monthly payment on the 6-year loan is much lower--maybe 40% lower (about $425 a month for the 6-year loan, versus approximately $750 a month for the 3-year loan). That's why people take out the longer loans. But they end up paying more for the same car.

A related problem comes up with real estate mortgages. Some mortgage lenders are now offering 40-year fixed rate mortgages as a way to qualify people to buy homes. Arithmetically speaking, a 40-year mortgage costs many more dollars than a 30-year mortgage (around 30% more; so if you're talking about a $200,000 mortgage, that's an extra $60,000 for the same house).

You don't plan to stay in the house for 40 years, so you ask why does it matter? Because the rate at which you build equity in the house is slower with a 40-year mortgage than with a shorter mortgage. The early payments in any mortgage are mostly used to pay interest charges. Only a small portion goes to reducing the principal balance of the loan. As you make more mortgage payments, the amount that goes to reducing the principal gradually increases and you begin to build equity in the house (equity being the value that is yours). A 40-year mortgage with an interest rate of 6% increases your equity in the house by about 8% of the amount of the mortgage loan after the first ten years (about $16,000 for a $200,000 mortgage). A 30-year mortgage with the same interest rate will increase your equity in the house by about 16% of the mortgage loan in the same time period (about $32,000 for a $200,000 mortgage). Given that housing prices are now flat or dropping in most areas, paying down the principal of the mortgage is pretty much your only way to build equity. The monthly payments on a 40-year mortgage might be about 8% or 9% lower than the monthly payments on the 30-year mortgage. But you pay a large price in terms of slower equity growth to get that reduction.

For more information about the risks of financing your home purchase with "affordable" mortgages, please read our May 10, 2007 blog, "How the Right Mortgage Loan Helps You Build Wealth" (http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2007/05/how-right-mortgage-loan-helps-you-build.html).

Remember that you will get a finite amount of money in your lifetime--basically, what you earn, what you gain from investments, anything you inherit, and your lottery winnings (haha, just a joke for 99.9999% of us). The more of your finite lifetime income you spend on interest payments, the less you will have for steaks and champagne. This is a zero-sum game: either the banks get your money, or you get it.

The reason why banks crowd around throwing credit at you is because they stand to make big money lending to you. From your standpoint, the problem with that is the big money comes out of your pocket. Borrow if you must, and borrow for a good reason. Getting an education is a good reason. Buying a house is a good reason. Buying a car is a good reason. But not every loan is a good loan. Buy less house or less car if necessary to keep your borrowing under control. You can't borrow your way to a comfortable retirement. You can save your way to a comfortable retirement.

Celebrity News: Paula Abdul and the risks of owning a Chihuahua--http://www.nbc4.com/entertainment/13364020/detail.html.