The Best Asset in a Time of Volatility

All markets are volatile these days.  Stocks are gyrating, bonds are falling as interest rates increase, oil is bouncing up and then down, bitcoin has fallen all year, and even the real estate market seems to be going wobbly.  Gold and silver have been slipping away.  And foreign markets look even gloomier.

Investors naturally look for opportunities when prices fluctuate.  Whether you're a buyer or a short seller, price movements create the potential for profit.  Volatility is gut wrenching if you're taking losses, and can stimulate panicky selling when prices are low.  But it can be exhilarating if it looks like a lucky break.

That's why cash is often the best asset to hold in a time of volatility.  It gives you the means to take advantage of fortuitous price movements, while its stability insulates you from the emotional roller coaster that often drives people to sell when prices are dropping.  Don't think that you have to remain fully invested all the time.  What you have to do is remain unemotional, as emotion is the enemy of careful investing.  A nice, comforting cushion of cash can prevent an unwanted flood of adrenaline.

Cash may appear to have a low rate of return, with greedy banks still paying miserly rates of interest on deposits even though interest rates have been rising.  But cash also offers the potential to profit from price volatility.  You can dive into an asset when its price is low and make a bundle when it rebounds.   That potential makes the effective return from cash much higher.  So don't be afraid to hold a lot of cash in a time of volatility.  That's when it's an investor's best friend.

Investing in a Time of Trump

If there's one notable feature of investing in the nascent Trump Presidency, it's uncertainty.  Although macroeconomic statistics are generally good, we are startled every day by a spinning kaleidoscope of tweets, leaks, executive orders, allegations, innuendoes, news stories, fake news stories and occasional court rulings that splatter across our field of vision and further contort the cognitive dissonance in the political scene from the recent election.  When all news and news-substitutes seem to be open to challenge, what can an investor rely on?

The ever-rising market only makes things worse.  With such political confusion, it's far from clear that the economic and tax policies espoused by President Trump will be implemented any time soon.  Why does the market persistently climb higher?  One can only suspect that some market participants have conflated optimism with delusion.  The background music to today's market may not be the Grand March from Aida (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX0qN6QEvGg), but rather Jimi Hendrix's Purple Haze (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJunCsrhJjg).

What can an investor make of all this?  Bear in mind that you can't see a lot of what's going on in the market.  There are major undercurrents, often computer driven, that cause daily market schizophrenia.  Large investors can push the market one way or another in the course of making large purchases or unwinding large holdings.  Mom and Pop investors won't see this or hear about, except maybe after the fact.

Computerized trading can be particularly scary.  It no longer consists of following pre-determined algorithms.  Much of today's computerized trading is dynamic, using artificial intelligence-type programs that try to figure out as the trading day progresses where prices are headed and buy or sell to take advantage of the anticipated market move.  Since much of the trading these programs are observing is done by other computers, we have computers reacting to other computers.  Price, which traditionally has been a judgment call made by intuitive and irrational humans, is now the product of chains of logic.  That logic tends to respond to short term stimuli, such as price movements in the last few minutes, seconds and even milliseconds.  It doesn't factor in the uncertainty in Washington.

People know the future is cloudy.  But the computers don't.  Computers don't feel fear, nor do they have to save for retirement or build up a cash reserve to guard against a layoff or a large unexpected expense.  People may hold onto their cash, wondering if the market is too bubbling given the chaos in the White House.  But a computer may boldly keep buying, egged on by the trades of the past 20 milliseconds.

If you're hesitant about the market, keep your powder dry and your cash in an FDIC guaranteed bank account.  There's no computer program that can understand and explain Donald Trump.  Today's stock market may be too heavily driven by short term inputs, without a full understanding of longer term risks.  Remember the old computer adage: garbage in, garbage out.  If today's computerized trading is pushing the market up based on an incomplete picture, prices will eventually rise too far, if they haven't already.  Then, le deluge.

America: a Nation of Cash Hoarders

The stock market has just finished its best quarter since 1998, with the S&P 500 up almost 12%. But retail investors keep exiting the market, stashing money in bonds or sidelining it in bank accounts and money market funds. Why are investors so skittish when returns seem so good? Because they've learned the hard way.

First, stock market gains are no longer seen as solid. That was the lesson of the 2000 tech market crash and the 2007-08 financial crisis. The lesson was reinforced by the May 2010 flash crash, and by the motion sickness caused by volatility from the European sovereign debt crisis. For Baby Boomers in particular, who are reaching retirement age, easing back on stocks and into more stable investments is eminently sensible. (For more on this point, see http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2012/02/maybe-retail-investor-is-retiring.html). After all, it's pretty hard to retire on ethereal gains.

Second, financial assets derive much, if not most, of their value today from government policies and political maneuvering. Indeed, the world's second most important currency--the Euro--was created and is sustained by government policy and bailouts. Take the EU's governments out of the picture and there would be no Euro. Nothing is as unpredictable or unreliable as politics. And few investors want to bet their remaining retirement savings on the flightiness of politics.

Third, investors need only look at the smart money to see that cash is the preferred asset. Large corporations are hoarding cash like it was spring water in the Sahara. This cash hoarding reflects the breakdown of the banking system, which corporations in the U.S. and Europe know can't be relied upon. If big names in the corporate world are stuffing their mattresses with greenbacks, how many retail investors think they're so much smarter than major corporations that they should do something different? Okay, so Apple just declared a dividend. But that looks more like Apple is trying to prevent its cash hoard from getting larger rather than sending a lot of its current holdings of cash to shareholders.

Fourth, look at the banking system itself. Major banks borrow heavily from the Fed or the European Central Bank, only to turn it around and redeposit the borrowed funds with their central bank. Why? Because they're hoarding cash as well. They don't want to do something dangerous like invest in risk assets because they might lose money. Are investors to believe that risk assets are for them when the world's largest banks won't touch the cr . . . stuff.

Fifth, the Fed's longstanding suppression of positive interest rates net of inflation can only be viewed as an official statement that the economy is still deep in the septic tank and going nowhere fast. Its promise to stamp out positive interest rates until at least 2014 is tantamount to predicting that things won't get better any time soon. Who would want to invest in risk assets with the government so gloomy? When interest rates are effectively zero or less, you know you can't recover your losses from interest income. So it may be best not to take losses even if you get no gains. The Fed's blatant effort to arm twist investors into risk assets only pushes many of them away from taking any risk at all.

As regards economic recovery, we're basically in a stand off. Corporations aren't investing or hiring until consumer spending rebounds. But consumers won't spend because they're afraid of losing their jobs or have lost their jobs, and, for many, are underwater on their mortgages. The Federal Reserve's war on positive interest rates prevents savers from getting hardly a thimbleful of interest income. So retirees and others having savings dial back their consumption in order to preserve capital. The housing market remains a disaster area, with vast amounts of foreclosed properties and defaulted mortgages continuing to lurk. The losses in real estate (realized and unrealized) are so great that it will be years before this market recovers (for this writer's not inaccurate prediction made four and a half years ago, see http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2007/09/when-will-housing-prices-recover.html).

The biggest and most successful corporations hoard cash. The banks at the center of the financial system hoard cash. Cash feels good. (See http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2011/11/old-timers-and-their-rolls-of-cash.html.) Why wouldn't investors get on the bandwagon and hoard cash?

Old-Timers and Their Rolls of Cash

Back in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, it was commonplace for men who had lived through the Great Depression to keep rolls of cash in their pockets. Many carried $200 or $300, equivalent to $1,000 to $2,000 today. Usually, these weren't wealthy men. They were ordinary men who had learned from experience that life is unpredictable, usually in a bad way. In their time, banks had failed, the stock and real estate markets had collapsed, unemployment had risen to 25%, families had fallen apart, young people felt lucky to have a job--any job--and prosperity returned only after the world survived the crucible of a horrendous world war. Cash was their insurance policy against all kinds of hazards, including the uninsurable. Cash felt good.

We're now in another era of uncertainty. While government safety nets, stimuli and other measures have kept us out of a Depression, the unresolved debt crises in America and Europe, as well as depressed real estate and volatile stock markets, continue to inhibit recovery. Another downturn may be in the offing. Federal deposit insurance relieves us of the need to keep large amounts of paper currency on hand. But the value of cash is strongly correlated with increases in market volatility, and cash is getting to be extremely valuable now.

Safety nets are wearing thin. Government benefits for many have run out and there's no room in the budget for more. Many are one paycheck away from homelessness. Illness, layoffs, disability, a new roof, a major auto repair, and other unpredictable expenses wait in ambush. Credit is tight. The only people who can get loans are the ones that don't need them. Keep 6 to 12 months living expenses in an emergency fund that's FDIC insured. Then set aside some more money to cover hell and high water expenses. The chances of another worldwide financial crisis swirl like a morning fog that may not lift. All the newfangled financial engineering hasn't made the world a safer place. The old-timers knew one thing: cash is the best port in a financial storm.

The Key to Long Term Investing: Liquidity

Paradoxically, liquidity is a very important component to success at long term investing. Stocks have a good long term record, if you measure in decades. Real estate is less profitable overall, but is the long term investment of choice for many Americans since they are homeowners. Having to sell unexpectedly early, though, can ruin the value of either stocks or real estate as investments. If markets are shaky when you have to sell, you can be a big loser.

To increase your chances of long term success, you need liquidity--cash to keep you going without having to sell your long term investments. This includes having a bulked up emergency fund to cover unexpected cash needs (like unemployment or a medical crisis). It also means having a stable source of cash for a long period of time. Most people work for that stable source of cash. Those with pensions have a steady cash flow in retirement. Highly rated bonds and stocks with a strong record of paying dividends can also serve this need. Immediate fixed or inflation adjusted annuities from highly rated insurance companies can provide long term liquidity. Don't forget Social Security. It's like a pension. Even if it doesn't cover all your needs, its predictable inflation-adjusted monthly payments are the financial foundation for most retired Americans.

If your day-to-day liquidity needs are met, you can hold your long term investments until the moment you, and not circumstances, choose as the time of sale. Avoid borrowing to meet these liquidity needs. Debt tends to destabilize your finances. (See http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2010/07/why-you-should-avoid-debt.html.) Instead, securing a steady income and living within your normal cash flows can give you a good chance to win over the long haul.

Batten Down the Hatches for the Dog Days

This could be a stormy summer. Like the mortgage debt crisis three years ago that blew up and froze the financial markets, there's a nontrivial chance the government debt crisis could do the same this summer. Government debt, normally the investment of last resort, is starting to look hinky. With respect to the federal debt ceiling, some Republicans in Congress seem intent on provoking a default in August. Biting the hands that feed us--i.e., stiffing investors in U.S. Treasury securities--hardly seems like a good idea for a debtor nation. But "smart politician" is virtually an oxymoron these days.

More than America, the Euro bloc lurches inexorably toward default. For the moment, Greece is the only nation that is likely to formally default. However, all Euro bloc members have pretty much assumed de facto responsibility for all the sovereign debt and bank debt of all member nations. So a default by Greece is, in effect, a default by the entire Euro bloc. Such a development would not be well-received in the financial markets. But Euro bloc leaders are divided about what to do, and progress toward true resolution is seen about as often as the ivory-billed woodpecker.

Although another financial crisis is a low probability event, the simultaneous dysfunction in Washington and Europe could make things go haywire in the dog days of this summer. After all, nothing has been done since the last credit crunch that would preclude another one this year. What to do?

Love cash. Have a cash lovefest. Build up your emergency fund and put it in a bank (making sure it's 100% covered by FDIC insurance). Avoid non-essential big purchases for the next few months to increase cash on hand.

Be cautious with money market funds. If U.S. Treasury securities actually default, money market funds might have to break the buck. A sudden spike in interest rates could reduce the value of their T-bills and impose losses on the funds. Although the extent of such losses is likely to be comparatively small, given the very short maturities that money market funds are supposed to hold, it's not impossible that a freeze-up in the Treasury securities market could result in money market losses and perhaps momentarily limit access to your account. This is a low probability event, and fund management companies would probably go to great lengths to avoid breaking the buck. But it happened once in 2008. If you are likely to need funds in a money market account in the near future, consider moving the necessary amount into a federally insured bank account in July if the debt ceiling mess remains unresolved.

Invest defensively. Now's not the best time to take a flier, except if you have mad money you can easily afford to lose. Note how the Nasdaq market has, in recent days, been falling proportionately faster than the Dow and the S&P 500. Many risk assets are falling, literally, out of favor. Be careful about diving into emerging markets. China's economy is slowing, and India's and Brazil's governmental yield curves are inverting (seen by some as a sign of impending recession).

Avoid unnecessary financial commitments. If you're thinking of making a major financial commitment, like buying an annuity or a whole life insurance policy, consider stepping back and waiting to see how things play out over the next few months. If, for example, you buy an annuity now, and Treasury yields rise sharply later this year because of a U.S. government default, you may effectively have lost money because you would have bought at today's low interest rates.

Line up credit lines now. Credit could evaporate if things go gonzo. While borrowing is to be avoided if at all possible during a financial crisis, there sometimes are pressing reasons to go into hock. Line up any loans you'll need. Since it's even possible a bank might terminate the unused portion of a line of credit if the sky falls, you may want to draw down on credit lines now if you are absolutely sure you'll need the money and have no other way to get it. Make damn sure you can repay what you draw down. And keep the loan funds in a bank account, not a money market fund.

All this may sound on par with suggestions to stock freeze dried food and bottled water, and to start a garden in your back yard. But we haven't had to rely on subsistence farming in more than a century. Just three years ago, credit was crunched and the financial system almost failed. As far as money goes, take nothing for granted.

Smart Spending Builds Wealth

Spending money can help to build wealth--if you spend the right way. Buy things when they are inexpensive. If you like tuna, wait until it goes on sale and buy a dozen cans for 1/3 or ½ off. As for meat or poultry, buy several pounds on sale and freeze what you don’t eat right away. If you like whole wheat bread, buy the brand that’s on sale. At most grocery stores, there will a dozen brands of whole wheat bread and one or another will usually be on sale every week. Also, read the nutritional labels. Sometimes, the supermarket’s generic brand has more nutritional content than more expensive and heavily advertised brands (no, not a joke). If you can get over the image problem, buying generic may be cheaper and better for you.

The next time you’re near a cheap gas station, fill your tank up completely. Then, top off at less expensive stations, even if you still have a half a tank. That way, you’ll always buy less expensive gas. Don’t wait until your tank is almost empty and you have to buy at whatever station is nearby regardless of cost.

On a larger scale, don’t buy expensive clothes until they go on sale. All stores have sales. Be patient and get suits, shirts and ties for 30%, 40% or even more off. If you want a large, flat screen TV, wait until a major holiday with a three-day weekend. The big box stores often drop prices to draw customers. Or find a discount outlet, either at a strip mall or online, and buy below the nationally advertised price. On an even larger scale, pay cash for your cars if you can. You may be able to get a very good price on a new car by asking for quotes from the dealer’s Internet departments. See our blog about buying a new car this way: http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2007/05/buy-new-car-without-haggling-and-save.html.

When it comes to your credit card, don’t carry a balance over from month-to-month. Once you start rolling over a balance, the interest and other charges become a part of your financial life. If you pay off each month’s balance, you are effectively getting a loan at zero percent interest. That’s bargain basement credit. (Don’t feel sorry for the credit card companies—they ding the merchant a percentage of each charge, so they make money anyway.)

Think of smart spending as an investment. When you buy tuna at 50% off, you effectively make a 100% profit, because you save as much as you spend. When you buy a suit at 35% off, you effectively make about a 50% profit. The amount of money you “make” on a dozen cans of tuna this way is a few dollars. But if you approach all your spending this way, you could save hundreds and even thousands of dollars a year. Assuming you have a 50 to 60 year adulthood, your lifetime savings can amount to tens of thousands, and maybe more than a hundred thousand, dollars. Invest the savings, and you’ll notice an improvement in your retirement. To learn more about the power of compounding, go to our earlier blog at http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2007/04/love-in-time-of-financial-planning-part.html.

This technique is most effective if you don’t buy when prices are high, and then buy in quantity when prices are low. Also, don’t buy things on sale simply because they are on sale. Use sale prices to your advantage, and purchase what you would buy anyway—when prices are low.

In order to buy things when they are inexpensive, you have to have some extra money around. An $800 charge for suits, shirts and ties at a sale may cause an unexpected jump in your credit card balance. It takes money to make money, even when we're talking about smart spending. So keep some cash on hand to cover these uneven expenses. How much you keep depends on your spending needs. A couple thousand dollars may be all you need for most household expenses. Obviously, more would be needed for something like a large high definition flat screen TV or a car. Set aside some money for spending capital. “Buy low, sell high” is an old adage in the investment business. Buying low is also a good way to spend.

Crime News: Here’s a criminal twist on a shopping list. http://www.wtop.com/?nid=456&sid=1162977.