Are Conservatives More Gullible Than Liberals?

A recently released study from researchers at the University of Southern California found that, during the 2016 Presidential election, conservatives were about 31 times more likely to retweet Russian trolls than liberals.  See https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/24/17047880/conservatives-amplified-russian-trolls-more-often-than-liberals.  Thus, Russian tweets favoring Donald Trump were far more likely to be amplified by retweeting than Russian tweets favor Hillary Clinton.  Conservatives, the data shows, were more likely to be taken in by Russian fake news than liberals.

It's unclear why.  Perhaps conservatives are more likely to be alarmed by the fear-inducing messages that the trolls tended to send.  Or, liberals may tend to think more critically of what they read before accepting it.  Perhaps both tendencies are factors, or maybe something else is operative.  Whatever the case, anyone who participates in social media (i.e., all two billion or so of you) need to be cautious about accepting what you read.  Facebook, Twitter, Google and other social media websites don't ensure you're reading the truth or anything even remotely close to the truth.  They're starting to understand that acting as conduits for messages, however false, isn't a great business strategy because people will eventually tire of being fed falsehoods.  And social media today is way too heavily laden with falsehoods.  People will eventually go to other websites that more rigorously screen the information they display.  Traditional news services may win in the end.

 By all indications, the measures being taken by Facebook, Twitter, Google and other social media websites to combat fake news are inadequate.  Russian bots flooded Twitter with pro-gun messages after the recent shootings at Marjorie Douglas Stoneham High School in Broward County, Florida.  See https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/16/us/russian-bots-florida-shooting-intl/index.html.  No doubt they tried similar measures in other social media sites.  Don't rely on social media for the truth.  Be cautious.  Be skeptical.  You won't win a political debate by pushing messages from Russian trolls.  Truth will prevail in the end---and that means if you buy into messages from Russian trolls, you'll lose.

Donald Trump's Head Fakes

Donald Trump loves Twitter.  At least, so it would seem with his irrepressible use of the 140-character megaphone.  It grabs peoples' attention, particularly the attention of the press.  A 140-character message is usually easy to grasp and react to.  Not much work for a reader or a reporter.

But what's the purpose of his tweeting?  During the election, he tweeted or retweeted about a deceased Muslim veteran, a former Miss Universe, assertions by white supremacists, and other things that contravened the social values of the Democratic electorate, provoking vigorous and extended efforts by his opponent to argue that he was unfit for the Presidency.

Meanwhile, back on Main Street, Trump was holding rallies and talking about jobs, jobs and jobs.  He kept his eye on the ball (i.e., the economy, stupid), while diverting his opponent with social values head fakes.  She took the bait, and lost sight of the fact that economic distress drives elections more than the character flaws of candidates.  She paid for her mistakes.

Now, Trump has tweeted that flag burners should be imprisoned and lose their citizenship.  Surely he knows that flag burning is protected by the First Amendment to the Constitution and cannot be punished with criminal prosecution or deprivation of citizenship. So why tweet?  Could it be that he wants to divert attention from other things he's doing?  His tax proposals look like they'll make the rich a lot richer, and maybe even increase taxes on some members of the middle class.  His possible changes to Medicaid might leave some folks less well-insured.  His infrastructure proposal seems to focus more on giving businesses tax breaks than fixing the roads and bridges that are in the worst shape.  He's promised to repeal Obamacare, and to roll back financial regulatory reforms of the Dodd-Frank Act.

If you're concerned about what soon-to-be President Trump is going to do, watch out for his head fakes.  Don't be diverted by transparent attempts to yank your chain.  Focus on the big stuff, the things that will change things fundamentally.  Keep your eye on the bottom line, because that's what our incoming businessman President will do.