With Ted Cruz dropping out of the Republican primaries after losing in Indiana, it really does matter whether the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. A recent Reuters poll shows Clinton leading Trump by almost 9%: http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_13. However, in another Reuters poll, Sanders leads Trump by 16%: http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_14. Polls taken two months ago show that Sanders was comparably stronger against Trump than Clinton: http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2016/03/bernie-sanders-is-most-electable.html.
Donald Trump will now surely be the Republican nominee. He has displayed remarkable political talent, and has blasted his way through a vast field of experienced, well-funded and strongly supported career Republican politicians. Hillary Clinton's negatives and baggage offer Trump big, fat, juicy targets. With his skill at handling the media, he may well close the 8-9% gap between himself and Clinton and force her into an extremely tight race. Bernie Sanders, by contrast, with his humble background, modest finances, and rumpled clothes, presents a harder target to hit. There aren't that many cheap shots Trump could take at him. Trump would have to attack Sanders' policy proposals and platform--and that's exactly where Sanders would like the debate to be. By relentlessly pushing his ideas, Sanders closed an enormous gap between himself and Clinton. He's won with his ideas and his victory today in Indiana shows his continued appeal to voters.
Contrary to what many self-satisfied Democratic insiders believed this morning, the Republicans will not tear their party apart. Trump has the rest of the Spring and the Summer to stitch together a united Republican front. Sanders, having just won Indiana and likely to win more upcoming primaries, isn't stepping out of the race. The Democrats face a dilemma: whether to nominate Clinton, the candidate with the most power within the party, or nominate Sanders, the candidate most likely to beat Trump. Power politics will probably prevail. But in choosing Clinton, the Democrats may be taking the harder road to the White House.
Showing posts with label primary elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label primary elections. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 3, 2016
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Republican Losses in the Primaries
More than is generally recognized, the Republicans may have been the biggest losers recently. Their mainstream candidates have had a rough time. Senator Robert Bennett of Utah was ousted at a GOP state convention, in favor of a Tea Party candidate. In Kentucky, the choice of the state GOP establishment was beaten in a primary by Tea Partier Rand Paul. Arlen Specter, a former Republican Senator from Pennsylvania, felt so uncertain about his re-election prospects in a Republican primary that he switched to the Democratic Party, but then lost to an upstart Democratic Congressman, Joe Sestak.
It seems that mainstream Republicans are an endangered species. Mitt Romney, a frequent leader in the early polling for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination, endorsed the losing Bob Bennett. He must be furiously re-working his candidacy, perhaps to include a well-televised caribou hunt in Alaska.
The Democrats have their share of problems with upstarts. A longstanding Congressman from West Virginia, Alan Mollohan, was defeated in a primary by a state senator. Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas will face Arkansas' lieutenant governor, Bill Halter, in a runoff. But the Dems also won a special election in Pennsylvania to replace the late John Murtha. Democrat Mark Critz beat Tea Partier Tim Burns.
Political insurgencies today aren't always about one party versus the other. They're often about newcomers challenging incumbents. And the challengers that win tend to be the more extreme. That's what is surely giving the GOP establishment nightmares. Presidential elections are decided by winning over moderate voters. Extremists may take control of parties. But they don't win Presidential elections.
Lyndon Johnson, may he rest in peace, must be smiling now. He was elected in 1964 by a landslide when the Republican nomination was seized by Barry Goldwater's insurgency. Goldwater, may he rest in peace, mellowed as he grew older and is probably frowning now. Barack Obama is the presumptive Democratic nominee for the 2012 Presidential election, and he'll have a good chance for a second term if extremists succeed in their efforts to take over the Republican Party.
It seems that mainstream Republicans are an endangered species. Mitt Romney, a frequent leader in the early polling for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination, endorsed the losing Bob Bennett. He must be furiously re-working his candidacy, perhaps to include a well-televised caribou hunt in Alaska.
The Democrats have their share of problems with upstarts. A longstanding Congressman from West Virginia, Alan Mollohan, was defeated in a primary by a state senator. Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas will face Arkansas' lieutenant governor, Bill Halter, in a runoff. But the Dems also won a special election in Pennsylvania to replace the late John Murtha. Democrat Mark Critz beat Tea Partier Tim Burns.
Political insurgencies today aren't always about one party versus the other. They're often about newcomers challenging incumbents. And the challengers that win tend to be the more extreme. That's what is surely giving the GOP establishment nightmares. Presidential elections are decided by winning over moderate voters. Extremists may take control of parties. But they don't win Presidential elections.
Lyndon Johnson, may he rest in peace, must be smiling now. He was elected in 1964 by a landslide when the Republican nomination was seized by Barry Goldwater's insurgency. Goldwater, may he rest in peace, mellowed as he grew older and is probably frowning now. Barack Obama is the presumptive Democratic nominee for the 2012 Presidential election, and he'll have a good chance for a second term if extremists succeed in their efforts to take over the Republican Party.
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