Putin's Victory in America

 The Donald Trump-instigated right-wing storming today of the U.S. Capitol while Congress was counting the electoral votes for Joe Biden's and Kamala Harris' victory in last November's election is the pinnacle of Vladimir Putin's attack on America.  Since 2016 and perhaps before, Putin has sought to undermine democracy in America, since American democracy, the fount of freedom in the modern world, is a titanic embarrassment to dictators and demagogues such as Putin.  Putin has some strange influence over Trump, and Trump throughout his Presidency has sought to emulate Putin and other autocrats.  Putin's intelligence services have massively hacked the U.S. government and American businesses, with nary a whisper of protest from Trump.  For all we know, Putin has access to the inner workings of all significant parts of the U.S. government, apparently with Trump's acquiescence.  

The American people, however, weren't prepared to knuckle under to demagoguery.  Last November, they stood by their democratic principles and freely elected Joe Biden President and Kamala Harris Vice President, thus delivering to Putin a massive defeat in his war against American democracy.  But Trump and his goon-followers, in the most unAmerican way, have disgracefully refused to participate in a peaceful transfer of authority.   They assaulted one of the most fundamental symbols of our nation, the U.S. Capitol, and besmirched it with their unAmerican, undemocratic, violent malice.  Trump's goons won for Putin.

But their victory was short-lived.  Even as I write, Congress, which had to temporarily stop counting electoral votes because of the mob violence, has resumed its work and will count the votes electing Biden and Harris.  Putin's victory will prove Pyrrhic.  Democracy has survived and won.

Christmas 2020

 President Trump doesn't want to sign the painstakingly negotiated pandemic relief bill.  (See https://slate.com/business/2020/12/trump-relief-bill-veto-checks-congress.html.) As of Christmas Eve, no relief is coming.  If you're in need, you're out of luck.  But try to hang on a little longer.  No one--not even a monster, demon, hobgoblin or ghoul--has ever succeeded in stealing Christmas.  It won't happen now.

‘Twas the night before Christmas,

And all through the house,

Not a creature was stirring,

Except a big louse.

 

Orange topped with a sneer,

Fish fillet on his tooth,

He scowled around and asked,

What can I do to be uncouth?

 

Take away their benefits,

Let them be evicted.

Instead, I’ll pardon,

My allies who’ve been convicted.

 

No stimulus payments

‘Cause the pandemic is fake.

If people are hungry,

Let them eat cake.

 

He built a Wall around the tree,

Hiding the presents and then walking,

To the fireplace to put

Lumps of coal in the stockings.

 

“Tell me I’m re-elected,”

He screamed with a harsh snort.

“Or I’ll impose martial law,

Because I’m a bad sport.”

 

But Christmas came anyway,

Bringing joy and good cheer.

Because the ogre lost the vote,

Better days will soon be here.

 

The Pandemic Isn't Caused By A Virus

 The novel coronavirus isn't the cause of the pandemic.  It causes the disease called COVID-19.  But the pandemic is caused by politics.  Science-denying President Trump has been and continues to be a leading cause of the pandemic, claiming that the disease is a hoax and making inaction his top priority in addressing the illness.  Vast numbers of his followers, eschewing masks on political grounds and assembling in close quarters, provide the virus with superhighways to all corners of the nation.  Governors, usually Republican, in many states refuse to mandate mask wearing, thus placing their constituents at risk from the most ignorant and partisan among them.  

Vaccines are likely to be available very soon.  But now we learn that anti-vaxxers are teaming up with zealots of QAnon to thwart effective use of medical science in the post-Trump era.  (See https://www.huffpost.com/entry/qanon-anti-vax-coronavirus_n_5fbeb0c0c5b61d04bfa6921a).  If you expect vaccines to end the pandemic, think again.  There's no cure or vaccine for ignorance or recklessness, and ignorance and recklessness abound, driving the pandemic. 

There is hope.  History tells us that in the long run, vaccines have prevailed over lunacy.  But getting to the long run could take a while.  Expect to wear masks in public indefinitely, stock up on paper towels and toilet paper, and make your home as comfy as possible since you'll be spending a lot of time there.  Try to protect yourself against other medical problems.  As multitudes of COVID-19 patients tie up hospital beds and other medical resources, there will be less for heart disease, cancer, and other patients.  Lots of people in addition to COVID-19 patients could die because of determined idiocy.  Try to enlighten the naysayers.  Some anti-vaxxers, like many Black Americans, may understandably mistrust the White-dominated scientific world, which has in so many ways engaged in harmful racism.  Sadly, the virus will do much of the educating.  As some of the unvaccinated die lonely, intubated deaths, appreciation for vaccines will grow and the benefits of science will once again be achieved.

National Guard Called Up To Provide Mortuary Assistance

 In case you were wondering how bad the COVID-19 pandemic is, consider this:  the Texas National Guard has sent troops to El Paso to help the morgues in the city deal with all the people who have died recently.  (See https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/21/us/el-paso-national-guard-morgue-coronavirus-trnd/index.html.)  The National Guard is replacing nine inmates from the county jail who had volunteered to help move bodies.  (See https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/us/el-paso-inmate-covid-bodies-trnd/index.html.)  Back in Washington, President Trump skipped the G20 Summit meeting on the pandemic and played golf instead. (See https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/21/politics/trump-g20-saturday-sessions/index.html.)  It's no wonder America had close to 200,000 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday. (See https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid-19-updates-possible-thanksgiving-case-spike_n_5fb56468c5b66cd4ad413505.) There is hope.  Joe Biden will be sworn in as the new President on January 20, 2021.  Until then, a chill wind will blow.  Hold onto your hats, wear masks, maintain social distances, and stay home as much as possible, because right now, you're pretty much on your own.

Dancing in the Street

 The Associated Press and CNN project that Joe Biden has been elected President and Kamala Harris has been elected Vice President.  People are dancing in the streets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuCBXTfoVq8

We've Been Through Long Elections Before and Can Do It Again

 As the November 3, 2020 Presidential election approaches, anxiety has grown over the possibility of lengthy processes for the counting of votes and determination of a winner.  The unprecedented amount of mail-in voting may complicate the counting process in many states, although efforts are underway to reduce potential logjams.  These are logistical problems that likely can be resolved with a little extra time.  There's no legal requirement that all votes be counted on Election Day, nor is there a legal requirement that only votes cast on Election Day be counted.  America has been through long elections before and can get through this one.

Elections used to take weeks.  Before 1848, Presidential elections were conducted over a 34-day period with each state specifying a particular date of its choice for voting.  Citizens had to wait quite a while for final results.  The telegraph came into use starting in 1844, and Congress became concerned that the rapid transmission of results from early voting states could affect the results in states with later election dates.  So the first Tuesday of November was established by federal law as the date for Presidential elections beginning in 1848.  Even then, there wasn't and still isn't any requirement for all votes to be counted on Election Day, or that only votes counted on Election Day matter.    

The modern era hasn't been exempt from lengthy election processes.  The 2000 contest between Al Gore and George W.  Bush wasn't resolved until Dec. 12, 2000, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in favor of Bush.  Even though the five-week period of uncertainty from that election exacerbated social and political divisions that had been vociferously aired during the campaign, America didn't fall apart.  

We'll have to be patient with the tabulation of votes this year.  But Americans in the past have been patient--sometimes very patient--while the democratic process played out.  It's at moments like this that true Americans tightly embrace democratic principles.  There are news stories reporting that Trump may not respect the outcome of the election if he loses.  Some of his far right followers are reportedly preparing for violence on his behalf.  We should stick faithfully to our democratic principles.  Nothing really bad has happened when we did so in the past.  Nothing really bad will happen now if we stay true to democracy. 

Could Russia Have Used Donald Trump's Business Problems to Recruit Him?

Recent news stories report that President Donald Trump didn't pay any income taxes in 10 of the 15 years starting with 2000. He reportedly paid only $750 in income taxes in each of 2016 and 2017. (See, e.g., https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/28/politics/donald-trump-taxes-election-2020-joe-biden-debate/index.html.) He supposedly took massive write-offs on his tax returns for business expenses and losses to avoid taxes on hundreds of millions of dollars of income.  These reports, if accurate, raise crucially important questions about whether Trump is the successful businessman he claims to be.  More chillingly, these reports raise questions about whether his business problems gave Russia leverage to recruit him as an agent.

When recruiting spies, intelligence services look for weaknesses.  One potentially useful weakness is financial need or financial stress.  A man with business problems is a possible target.  Could Russia have used Trump's business problems to recruit him as an agent?  Trump may be financially connected to Russia or Russians through Deutsche Bank, which has been a major lender to Trump and his companies. See https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/deutsche-bank-trump.html.  While no firm connection between Trump and Russia or Russians through Deutsche Bank has been established, Deutsche Bank has confirmed it has some of Trump's tax returns. See https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tax-returns-deutsche-bank-relationship-drawing-intense-scrutiny-2019-8-1028482268?op=1#.   So Deutsche Bank may well have known about Trump's massive tax write-offs.  Whether or not Russia knew about Trump's write-offs, it may have known that he needed funding.  U.S. intelligence has said that Russia sought to help Trump get elected in 2016 and is working to get him re-elected this year. What greater intelligence coup could there be than to have one's agent elected the national leader of an adversarial nation? 

So we have to ask whether Trump's business problems gave Russia an opening to recruit him.  The FBI may have been looking into this question, but the fate of its investigation seems to be clouded. See https://www.salon.com/2020/02/18/doj-appears-to-have-abandoned-possible-deutsche-bank-case-involving-russian-money-laundering-scandal_partner/.  Trump has been highly critical of the FBI and his Department of Justice is investigating the FBI's handling of the 2016 Russian interference in the Presidential election and also its investigation into the Clinton Foundation. See https://www.foxnews.com/politics/durham-assumed-parts-of-john-hubers-clinton-foundation-review-source. Is Trump trying to cow the FBI into avoiding a thorough investigation of his links with Russia and Russians?  

America deserves a complete investigation of Trump and his links to Russia and Russians.  That seems unlikely today, with Trump seemingly attempting to strip professionalism from the U.S. Department of Justice and the FBI.  In the meantime, Americans can express their views of all this in the upcoming election.  Will America be truly secure with such a potentially vulnerable man in the White House?  

Are Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp Making a Play For Donald Trump's Base?

The governors of Florida and Georgia, respectively Ron DeSantis and Brian Kemp, have mystifying been trying to overlook the science of the novel coronavirus and not ordering protective measures like mandatory wearing of face masks and increased restrictions on retail and commercial activity.  DeSantis has allegedly obscured state-level information about COVID-19 hospitalizations (https://www.salon.com/2020/07/14/former-covid-19-data-chief-outbreak-is-much-worse-than-desantis-administration-lets-on-in-florida/ ). Kemp has filed suit to prevent the mayor of Atlanta from imposing a face mask requirement (https://www.salon.com/2020/07/18/its-a-mess-republicans-turn-on-georgias-gop-gov-brian-kemps-stubborn-war-on-masks_partner/).  Their seeming recklessness could lead to greater numbers of infections and deaths in their home states--and in other states as interstate travel and commerce spread the disease.  One thing that is clear from watching the virus defeat President Trump is that defying medical science is a failed strategy.  Are DeSantis and Kemp crazy?  Or is there a purpose to this madness?

Even a cursory glance at the polls tells us that President Trump probably won't be re-elected this fall.  While the outcome of the election won't be known to a certainty until all the voting and counting is done, the gap between Trump and Joe Biden is large, and only widened after Trump's recent failed orgy of racism and hate-mongering in places like Tulsa, Mt. Rushmore and Phoenix.  Trump is flailing around for a way to save his campaign.  But he is too small a man, too hateful, anti-science, and immature to provide the kind of thoughtful, uplifting, unifying and magnanimous leadership Americans now seek.  His chances of a second term are meager and shrinking with each new COVID-19 case and each COVID-19 death.

That means Trump's base is in play.  Their leader probably won't be in politics much longer.  Both DeSantis and Kemp are of an age and have backgrounds that would let them scheme about the possibility of snagging the GOP Presidential nomination in 2024.  Grabbing the interest of Trump's base would give them a huge edge in the contest for that nomination.  And how would they get that edge? By engaging in crazy, wacked out, ignorant buffoonery like Donald Trump.  Maybe their horrifying policies actually make sense from a scheming, manipulative, deceptive, and terribly selfish point of view.   After all, they'd only be imitating Trump, and what better way to grab his base?

Does President Trump Have a Neurological Problem?

President Trump spoke to graduating cadets at West Point on June 13, 2020.  During the speech, he sipped from a cup of water.  He held the cup in his right hand, but apparently couldn't lift it all the way to his lips.  He then used his left hand to lift the cup all the way and drink. (See the video at https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1271820635040362497).

Then, after his speech, the President walked slowly down a ramp.  He appears to have some weakness or limitation in his right leg. His left leg does most of the work.  His pace slows down as he proceeds, until the last ten feet when he moves more quickly onto level ground.  Even on level ground, you can see that he favors his right leg. (See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTvuVxUmnZ4)

Does the President have a problem with his right side?  Is there a neurological issue affecting him that the White House hasn't disclosed?  At his age (74), such a problem wouldn't be unusual.  But these problems can become serious over time and could affect a person in various ways.  Do we know everything about the President's health?

The Coronavirus Crisis: How the Trump Administration is Pushing Stock Prices Down

The financial markets hate uncertainty.  When the picture isn't clear, stock prices get wobbly.  Before today, the coronavirus epidemic had already pushed stocks into a correction (i.e., a drop of 10% or more).  To make things worse, the Trump Administration has been trying to downplay the scope, risks and impact of the epidemic while federal health officials have endeavored to be realistic.  (See https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/politics/cdc-policy-test-kits-coronavirus/index.html.)  This informational squabble cast doubt where doubt could do the most harm.

The coronavirus epidemic is the largest driving force in the stock market today.  The disease has slowed the world economy and sharply reduced demand for petroleum, which has hit oil prices hard.  Major oil producing nations, including the members of OPEC and Russia, tried to work out a way to prop up oil prices this past weekend but failed.  This morning, oil prices plummeted into the $30 to $35 range for West Texas Intermediate.  That implies gas prices around $1.50 to $1.60 per gallon, compared to current retail prices around $2.20 to $2.50 in many parts of the country. 

The cratering oil prices exerted fresh downward pressure on stock prices today, so much so that a stock market circuit breaker was triggered for the first time after the S&P 500 fell 7%.  Trading was halted for 15 minutes and then resumed, with stock prices remaining moribund. 

When the markets don't have adequate information, investors are cautious about the prices they'll pay.  When a flood of selling takes place because of inadequate information, buyers will be reluctant to step forward and invest, even when prices drop significantly.  Holders of stocks, faced with uncertainty over the future, will be inclined to sell even more rather than run the risk of additional losses.  Fear spreads and selling increases.  Had the Trump Administration been forthright about the coronavirus epidemic, stock prices would have been impacted, but investors would have been more confident about stepping in and buying.  By creating an informational fog, the Trump Administration exacerbated selling pressure and dampened buying interest.  This is no way to restore confidence in the market.

The Trump Administration is certainly not the only government that has been economical with candor concerning the coronavirus epidemic.  The combined governmental obfuscation has been precisely what stock prices don't need.  But there are few signs of unvarnished governmental veracity on the horizon.  Expect more nausea in the markets.

Donald Trump's Very Bad Day in the Stock Market

Today, March 4, President Trump had a very bad day in the stock market.  Yesterday, Super Tuesday for the Presidential primaries, Joe Biden won a series of contests among the Democrats and took the lead in delegates over his principal rival, Bernie Sanders.  Today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose almost 1,200 points in celebration. 

Since before his inauguration, Trump has touted a buoyant stock market as one of the hallmarks of his Presidency.  To him, it signaled approval, achievement and prosperity.  Whenever the market showed signs of queasiness, Trump was quick to pummel the Federal Reserve Board for interest rate cuts to prop up stocks.  Trump equated stocks with himself, and stocks seemed to reciprocate.

But not today.  Today, the market loved Joe Biden.  And Trump could only watch the love fest. The market no longer needs him.  It can bounce up with Biden in the White House.  The contest for the Democratic Presidential nomination is far from over.  Biden's lead over Sanders is modest, with close to two-thirds of the delegates yet to be chosen.  Many of the remaining primaries are in Western and Midwestern states, where the demographics may be more favorable to Sanders.  But if Biden can maintain his momentum and secure the nomination, Trump won't be able to count on the stock market for support.

The Vietnamization of America's Middle Eastern Wars

More and more, America's wars in the Middle East and Africa bear a disturbing resemblance to the Vietnam War.   The Afghanistan war papers revealed that the government hasn't been truthful about the U.S. military efforts in Afghanistan, and that there is no path to victory.  https://news.yahoo.com/afghanistan-war-american-people-lied-to-washington-post-papers-201042599.html.  We earlier learned that the government's claim that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction--the justification used by the George W. Bush administration for invading Iraq in 2003--was also a lie.  https://www.salon.com/2015/05/20/george_w_bushs_cia_briefer_admits_iraq_wmd_intelligence_was_a_lie/.  These stories are reminiscent of the Pentagon Papers, which in 1969 revealed the Pentagon had lied to the American people about the Vietnam War, greatly inflating the prospects for victory while thousands of troops died for its lies.  But the Pentagon Papers didn't say much that surprised the troops who had fought in Vietnam.  They already knew the war was unwinnable.  Morale among U.S. troops in Vietnam was so bad that drug and alcohol use were rampant in the ranks, desertion was disturbingly frequent, and alleged fratricide in the form of killing officers an occasional measure supposedly taken to avoid seemingly pointless casualties and death. 

Now we are hearing that many members of the military oppose America's wars in the Middle East.  https://www.salon.com/2020/01/12/many-soldiers-want-to-stop-fighting-lets-build-a-movement-that-welcomes-them_partner/ and https://www.newsweek.com/combat-veteran-gold-star-husband-support-trump-ending-wars-1471550. Perhaps some 50,000 or more troops have resisted service in these wars.  https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2015/03/what-happens-to-most-awol-soldiers.html.
This military opposition to the war ominously changes the dynamics of the U.S. Middle Eastern wars.  When the troops themselves lose their sense of mission, the possibility for success evaporates.  Who wants to die to further Donald Trump's impulsive, strategy-light decisions? 

America's leadership can offer endless rationales for having some 80,000 U.S. troops in the Middle East and Africa.  But experience has taught that these rationales and $2 will buy a newspaper.  The government has no strategy for victory and our troops know it.  Refusing to acknowledge or deal with this reality didn't result in success in Vietnam, and it won't result in success now.  Even though America wisely stopped drafting men to into the military after the debacle of the Vietnam era, we can't expect that an all-volunteer military will blindly obey orders and die pointlessly.  Retreat and withdrawal are never easy.  But America's withdrawal from Vietnam, although deeply painful, also marked the beginning of a process of reconciliation, healing and growth.  America remained the world's most powerful nation and has enjoyed growth and prosperity since then. While there are many problems here that must be resolved, problems that may seem intractable at times, fighting unwinnable wars will only make things worse.  The wars in the Middle East and Africa have morphed into latter day Vietnam Wars.  Let's get out now.

Trumpty Dumbty Built a New Wall

 

Trumpty Dumbty built a new wall,

Trumpty thought he had done it all

Despite his malarkey, a few brave men

Made Trumpty look dumbty all over again.

Viral video shows border wall being scaled at Mexicali. Border Patrol says system 'worked exactly as designed'

A Future For the Trump International Hotel

News services report that the Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C. is up for sale.  Given this property's notoriety, as the venue for alleged Constitutionally-violative emoluments paid to President Trump, its future as a hotel could be in doubt.  Who would pay full market price for a hotel with a clouded reputation?  Anyone who did might come under investigation for giving President Trump an alleged Constitutionally violate emolument--or worse.  The penalties for bribery of a federal official are stiff.  So the Trump International isn't likely to command a high price.

But not all is lost.  Many commercial buildings are being converted to multiple use.  What once were malls, office buildings and other single use buildings find new lives as real estate jacks-of-all-trades.  Multiple use doesn't solve the emoluments/bribery problem--there could still be issues if the buyer really meant to buy political capital and not just a building.  But the identity of the buyer might resolve these concerns.  Consider the following.

Organize a crowd funded investment trust, with members of the progressive movement as trustees, that would be funded by rage donations. The trust would buy the hotel and convert it to multiple use.  The building could have a fitness studio--called Colin K's--where members would practice kneeling to the national anthem.  It could have a restaurant that served steak with anything except ketchup.  It could have a film studio, where actors appearing to be coarse, lecherous older men with orange hair would be filmed in videos with much younger women called "Naked and Afraid in the Business World."  It could have an immigrant orientation center, where classes in English as a second language would be offered, a family re-unification center called Encontremos Los Desapareciditos ("Find the Disappeared Little Ones") would operate, and immigrants would be given clear, clean spring water to drink.  It could have a travel agency that would arrange travel to Cuba and to countries that President Trump had in mind when he referred to "shithole countries."  It could have a Kurdish Liaison Office (the functional equivalent of an informal Kurdish embassy).  And last, but certainly not least, it could have an Amazon physical store, which would be a success because it would no doubt be a Trump-free zone.

President Trump's Failure to Cooperate in the Impeachment Inquiry Can Be Used Against Him

President Trump has taken a broad, unprecedented position against the House of Representatives' impeachment inquiry of his attempts to secure Ukrainian assistance in undermining the Democrats in the 2020 election and other matters.  He is refusing to cooperate in any way whatsoever, and is ordering at least some witnesses not to cooperate.  By stonewalling the House, he appears to hope to stall and delay the inquiry until it loses steam and, perhaps, popular support.

However, his choice not to cooperate can be used against him.  The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that when a person asserts their Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination, a court can draw an adverse inference from the assertion of the right.  See Baxter v. Palmigiano, 425 U.S. 308, 320 (1976).  This can only be done in civil proceedings, not in a criminal prosecution.  But an impeachment proceeding isn't a criminal proceeding.  It is a civil proceeding, where the worst case consequence is removal from office.  There is no prison time, no fine, no probation, and no public service.  The President's silence can be viewed by the House during impeachment proceedings, and by the Senate during the trial on the articles of impeachment, as evidence that the President engaged in high crimes and/or misdemeanors.  The adverse inference, if taken, would be added to the other evidence that the House accumulates and the entirety of the evidence (including the adverse inference) could constitute the evidentiary basis for impeachment and conviction.
 

The Impact of Trump's EU Tariffs

As part of his trade war on the rest of the world, President Trump proposes to impose 100% tariffs on a variety of European goods, such as cheese, meats, olive oil, wine, pasta and olives.  Here's the impact of those tariffs.

          OUT                                   IN

          Brie                                      Velveeta

          Prosciutto                            Spam

          Italian virgin olive oil        Pure vegetable oil

          Anything with an                Any grape-flavored
          appellation d'origine          beverage with a kick in      
          controlee                               a bottle with a twist-off cap

          Imported Italian pasta      SpaghettiO's

          Olives                                    pickle slices

Bon appetit.

Why Donald Trump Can't Stop a Recession

A recession may be on the horizon.  The Federal Reserve doesn't think so.  Some others do.  Only time will tell who is right.  But if there is a recession, President Trump can't stop it before the 2020 election. 

The principal tool for the President to fight a recession would be to partner with Congress and put together a package of spending bills that would increase federal expenditures.  This sort of program, called fiscal policy, sometimes includes tax cuts, but not always.  The greatest fiscal stimulus in U.S. history, military spending for World War II, included a massive tax increase and an even greater increase in deficit spending.  The result was both victory in the war and an economic revival at home. 

Today, however, there is an almost complete absence of agreement between the President and the Democrats in the House as to how to deploy fiscal policy.  Although both sides speak of infrastructure spending, agreement on the fine points and details has remained elusive since the President was inaugurated and won't be achieved before November 2020.  For more than the past 20 years, the federal budgetary process has been largely dysfunctional, and it has grown more so as political divisiveness has increased.  With only one full budget cycle remaining before the election, it's simply too late to implement fiscal measures in time.

To make things worse, the President would likely seek a tax cut as part of the stimulus package.  But, having alienated the Democrats by ramrodding through the 2017 tax cuts with nary a shred of consideration for Democratic views, the President has essentially no good will left with the House majority when it comes to tax policy.  The Democrats will agree to tax changes only if there is a substantial rollback of the 2017 cornucopia of tax cuts for the wealthy, and the President won't agree to that.  So no deal on tax legislation is possible.

Of course, central banks can endeavor to combat recessions.  But the President does not control central bank policy.  Monetary policy and other economic management measures such as quantitative easing and the setting of bank reserves lie within the purview of the Federal Reserve.  The President attempts to influence the Fed with shrill demands on Twitter for much more aggressive interest rate cuts than the Fed seems inclined to make.  But the Fed strives to maintain its independence, and the President would be wise to back off.  If the financial markets lose confidence in the independence and integrity of the Federal Reserve, stocks will crater and the economy will get a tummy ache.   Moreover, Fed interest rate adjustments often take 18 months or longer to affect the economy.  Although they may almost instantaneously be reflected in asset prices in the financial markets, they take a long time to wend their way through the processes of the economy.  There isn't enough time before November 2020 for interest rate cuts to have a big impact. 

The prospects for a recession remain uncertain.  Unemployment is at a 50-year low, a remarkable development that no doubt informs the Fed view of the economy.  The stock market is dancing near its all-time highs.  Transportation and manufacturing are slowing, and the business community is pulling back on new investment because of confusion and caution arising from President Trump's trade wars.  It's difficult to tell how things will go.  But if a recession is coming, it's coming.

President Trump: the Fed's Biggest Moral Hazard

Perhaps the Federal Reserve's biggest problem today is that it has a moral hazard problem with President Trump.  A moral hazard is a situation in which a person can take risks without having to bear the full consequences of those risks.  For example, when stock market investors think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to prop up the economy and the stock market should things go downward, they are more willing to buy stocks because they expect a bailout from the Fed.  This can lead to over-investment in stocks and greater potential for an asset bubble that can later burst painfully.

President Trump's trade war with China has created uncertainty.  The economy is slowing and the stock market has been trending downward for several weeks.  Trump has been haranguing the Fed to cut interest rates, evidently in the belief that such cuts can offset the negative impact of his trade war.  There is considerable debate among economists and others whether the Fed can actually prop up the economy and stocks while the President exchanges volleys of tariffs and other trade restrictions with China.  Perhaps the Fed can soften the impact, but it seems doubtful the Fed can do more than slow down the negative impacts of the trade war.  When the Fed lowers rates in what is already a low-rate environment, that signals things are going to be bad.  Businesses pull back, slowing hiring and investment.  Consumers spend less..  The rate cuts could produce a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, as long as President Trump believes the Fed can offset the damage his trade war does, he has no incentive to act prudently.  He may instead proceed recklessly and then turn to the Fed to put out the fires he starts.  This is an extremely concerning instance of moral hazard, and one for which there is no easy solution (because the President doesn't seem to understand economic reality).  The President could trigger an economic downturn and a bear market with no certainty that he could secure a good trade deal.  And we'd all pay the price.

Donald Trump's Fourth of July

 

Once upon a time, a dark lord, with the furtive connivance of a despot on a distant land, tricked the good people of an exceptional nation, a nation of manifest destiny, into choosing him as their elected leader.  The dark lord cast wicked spells over many of the citizens and deluded them into thinking he would bring them succor from their struggles and sorrows.  Not all of the people of the land were fooled, and many stoutly resisted the dark lord.  The dark lord stumbled and flailed in his sordid attempts to oppress and persecute the people, and gnashed his teeth over his repeated failures.  To glorify and aggrandize himself, and deceive the people into believing in his witchcraft, the dark lord misappropriated unto himself a national holiday, and strove with pretense and chicanery to make it into a celebration of himself.  But the heavens were not fooled.  When the appointed day for the holiday arrived, dense clouds appeared in the skies and showered the land with tears--tears for the los pobres and los ninos kept in the dank dungeons of the dark lord; tears for los desaparecidos, the children separated from their parents, never to be re-united.  And thunder, the angry rumblings of the skies, signaled celestial disapproval of the necromancer. The dark lord, heedless of the portents, pressed on with his depraved revelry.  But what will be the price of his recklessness?

Confusion, evacuations as weather threatens Trump's July 4th bash

Does the Mueller Report Contain the Evidence for the Impeachment of Donald Trump?

The report of Special Counsel Robert Mueller has been completed, but not released publicly.  All we have is a letter from Attorney General William Barr stating that Mr. Mueller concluded the evidence he had accumulated of Donald Trump and members of his administration possibly conspiring with Russians to interfere in the 2016 elections was insufficient to justify criminal charges.  Barr's letter also said that Mueller could not decide whether President Trump or others had obstructed justice but that Barr had concluded they had not.

A storm of controversy has arisen over the fact that the report itself is not public and therefore neither Congress nor the public can evaluate Mueller's evidence for themselves.  Whether or not the report will be released in full remains to be seen.  But the delay in releasing the report leaves open the question whether the report contains enough evidence to warrant the impeachment of President Trump.

Criminal charges need to be proved beyond any reasonable doubt.  That is the standard ("burden of proof" is the legal term) that Mr. Mueller would have been working with when he, according to Barr, decided that criminal charges for conspiracy with Russians could not be proven.  That would have also been the standard Mr. Barr worked with when he decided that obstruction of justice charges were not warranted.  But the Constitution does not specify any particular burden of proof for impeachment.

The impeachment process contains two stages.  The first is impeachment--or, the leveling of charges--by the House of Representatives.  The House decides whether there is enough evidence to level charges against the President.  Grand juries in America can level charges (by issuing an indictment) when they believe there is probable cause to believe that the defendant committed a crime.  Probable cause is a much lower standard than beyond a reasonable doubt.  Based on what's already been publicized about possible Trump collusion with Russia, it seems quite possible that the Mueller report contains enough evidence to support a determination of probable cause.  So impeachment by the House could be a distinct possibility if the House chose to use the probable cause standard (and nothing in the Constitution prevents it from doing so).

The second stage of the impeachment process is a trial in the Senate.  The Constitution provides, in Section 4 of Article II that "The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."  One might argue that the word "Conviction" implies the reasonable doubt standard.  However, the reasonable doubt standard had only begun to find its way into English law in the 1780's, when the Constitution was written, and was not explicitly recognized by the U.S. Supreme Court until 1881 (see Miles v. U.S., 103 U.S. 304 (1881).  Thus, the Senate is not bound by the reasonable doubt standard, and could impeach President Trump because it believes that grounds for impeachment have been proven by, for example, a preponderance of the evidence or by clear and convincing evidence, both of which are lower burdens of proof used in different types of civil court cases.

It's been reported in the press that the Mueller report is lengthy and detailed.  Thus, it surely must contain a great deal of evidence.  Because of the possibility that the Mueller Report may contain enough evidence to support the impeachment and removal from office of President Trump, it is imperative for America's democracy that the full report be immediately released to Congress and the public.