The Chinese stock market fell some 12% this first week of 2016. The downturn triggered corresponding drops in other stock markets around the world, including a loss of over 6% for the week in the U.S. The financial press is probably secretly delighted, since such volatility captures the attention of a lot of people and brings a surge of traffic onto their websites. But most people are unhappy.
The Chinese stock market fell for a simple reason--it's overvalued. It's been overvalued for a while, at least since early 2015. As we in America know, overvalued stocks fall sooner or later. It happened in 2000 and 2008. It's happening now in China, and elsewhere.
Chinese financial regulators complicated matters by halting trading after a circuit breaker was triggered by a 7% fall two days in a row. Circuit breakers can be useful in ameliorating short term panics. But significant overvaluation, as one sees in China, is a long term problem, and circuit breakers may actually increase selling pressure by sharply limiting the time available for trading. When trading hours are circumscribed, sellers want to move quickly to sell, but buyers want time to evaluate whether or not prices are leveling out. The result is that there are many more sellers than buyers in a limited amount of time and prices plummet. Chinese regulators had to suspend the circuit breakers, which was followed by a modest rise in Chinese stocks at the end of the week.
But the regulatory miscues aren't the long term story. Stocks in China were pumped up by a number of government policies that directly or indirectly encouraged investment in equities. The bubble peaked and burst this past summer, and the Chinese government has since been trying to prop up the market with restrictions on selling and government-induced purchasing. These measures to balance supply and demand don't address the basic underlying problem--Chinese stocks aren't worth their nominal market prices--and consequently can't really calm things down.
At this point, losses inhere in Chinese stocks. These losses have not been fully recognized in market prices. With the Chinese economy slowing and capital flowing out of China, there isn't much realistic prospect of the losses reversing. They will have to be realized sooner or later. The Chinese government probably understands this, but will endeavor to smooth out the process of realization of the losses to reduce the pain perceived by investors. The U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank used similar smoothing strategies to deal with the fallout from the Great Recession and the European sovereign debt crisis. Smoothing carries a major risk of kicking the can down the road, with losses emerging like new heads of the Hydra if underlying economic growth hasn't been revived. The challenge for China will be to accelerate its economic growth. But the prospects for a near-term rebound of the Chinese economy are poor. Low-cost manufacturing is gradually shifting out of China, where wages are rising, and hasn't yet been fully replaced by anything else. China's economy seems to be meandering. We can expect more market volatility.
Showing posts with label China stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label China stocks. Show all posts
Friday, January 8, 2016
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
The Market Dropped 3%, So What's For Dinner?
On Monday, Oct. 19, 1987, the U.S. stock market nose-dived, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 22.61% in a single day. That was volatility.
Recently, the market has been bouncing around, losing as much as a few percent a day, and edging into correction territory (a loss of over 10% from the latest high). This turbulence isn't surprising, given the six year age of the longstanding bull market. Indeed, in the summer of 2011, the market dropped around 17% on account of various investor jitters. Then, it recovered. Markets regularly have downturns, even bull markets.
So what does the future hold? Nothing that anyone can reliably foretell. The direction of the financial markets today is determined first and foremost by central bank policies. The key players are the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of China. Predicting central bank policies is difficult in the best of times. These days, with the data unusually uncertain, central bank policy is harder to predict than one's luck at the roulette wheel. This is especially so since politics appears to infiltrate central bank policy, making prediction even harder. But one thing you can expect is they'll be cautious about doing anything that isn't accommodative. If the Fed raises rates in 2015, it will probably do so once, and be done with rate raising for quite a long while.
The Chinese stock markets have a bubbly aura, making further volatility in Shanghai and Shenzen likely. But China's economy is not heavily dependent on rising Chinese stock prices--and neither are Europe's economy or North America's. Many individual savers in China are getting hosed, but the Chinese economy doesn't rely on domestic consumption. If Chinese investors lose their savings, Chinese manufacturers will still keep exporting to the rest of the world. So the acid reflux in the Chinese stock markets may, ultimately, have only so much impact and not more.
Keep an eye on the market, but don't miss any meals over it. If you're nervous, stay the course and don't invest more right now. On the other hand, if you're feeling lucky, think about adding a bit to your stock holdings as the averages move down. You know what they say about not letting a good crisis go to waste.
Is there a black swan lurking? Maybe. Since China has been the major source of world economic growth in recent years, any major upheaval in China could be the black swan. What could happen there? Well, President Xi Jinping has been aggressively consolidating power. He may be the most powerful leader China has had since Mao Zedong. But the market turmoil in China, and the recent slowdown in its economic growth, may be causing some to question his leadership. The secretive nature of China's Communist Party makes it impossible to know for sure how strong Xi's grip on power may be. While there are no overt signs of change, if Xi is forced out of power and there is a struggle for control in China, then all bets are off and you might want to do some hard thinking about how much risk you care to hold in your portfolio.
Recently, the market has been bouncing around, losing as much as a few percent a day, and edging into correction territory (a loss of over 10% from the latest high). This turbulence isn't surprising, given the six year age of the longstanding bull market. Indeed, in the summer of 2011, the market dropped around 17% on account of various investor jitters. Then, it recovered. Markets regularly have downturns, even bull markets.
So what does the future hold? Nothing that anyone can reliably foretell. The direction of the financial markets today is determined first and foremost by central bank policies. The key players are the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of China. Predicting central bank policies is difficult in the best of times. These days, with the data unusually uncertain, central bank policy is harder to predict than one's luck at the roulette wheel. This is especially so since politics appears to infiltrate central bank policy, making prediction even harder. But one thing you can expect is they'll be cautious about doing anything that isn't accommodative. If the Fed raises rates in 2015, it will probably do so once, and be done with rate raising for quite a long while.
The Chinese stock markets have a bubbly aura, making further volatility in Shanghai and Shenzen likely. But China's economy is not heavily dependent on rising Chinese stock prices--and neither are Europe's economy or North America's. Many individual savers in China are getting hosed, but the Chinese economy doesn't rely on domestic consumption. If Chinese investors lose their savings, Chinese manufacturers will still keep exporting to the rest of the world. So the acid reflux in the Chinese stock markets may, ultimately, have only so much impact and not more.
Keep an eye on the market, but don't miss any meals over it. If you're nervous, stay the course and don't invest more right now. On the other hand, if you're feeling lucky, think about adding a bit to your stock holdings as the averages move down. You know what they say about not letting a good crisis go to waste.
Is there a black swan lurking? Maybe. Since China has been the major source of world economic growth in recent years, any major upheaval in China could be the black swan. What could happen there? Well, President Xi Jinping has been aggressively consolidating power. He may be the most powerful leader China has had since Mao Zedong. But the market turmoil in China, and the recent slowdown in its economic growth, may be causing some to question his leadership. The secretive nature of China's Communist Party makes it impossible to know for sure how strong Xi's grip on power may be. While there are no overt signs of change, if Xi is forced out of power and there is a struggle for control in China, then all bets are off and you might want to do some hard thinking about how much risk you care to hold in your portfolio.
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
China's Financial Isolation
China's manufacturing sector is deeply embedded in the world economy, and has made China an economic superpower. But China's government has isolated the Chinese financial system, and that turns out to be a good thing for the rest of the world.
China's stock market has fallen about 30% from its recent high in June 2015. The impact on investors of this dizzying drop has been acutely painful, especially for recent entrants. Many of those purchased on margin, and have taken crushing losses. The Chinese government has announced various measures to pump more money into the stock market and stabilize prices. The verdict on this blatant governmental effort to manipulate prices has yet to come in.
However, the rest of the world hasn't felt much impact from the gyration's of China's stock market. While foreign investors in Chinese stocks have taken losses, it's not that easy for foreigners to invest in Chinese securities. Similarly, it's difficult for foreign banks to do business in China. They wouldn't have that much at stake, since the Chinese government limits the scope of their activities. Although foreign losses in China aren't trivial, they also aren't enough to destabilize the international financial system.
The Chinese government deliberately limited foreign access to the Chinese financial system, fearing the volatility seen in the 1997 Asian financial crisis, when Western capital exited, stage right, as things got stinky. This rapid outflow of capital only made things worse for the developing Asian nations. The last thing the Chinese government wanted to do was indenture itself to Western capital.
Of course, what the Chinese government did on its own was pretty silly. It tried to use monetary and regulatory policy to stimulate the economy by pumping up stock prices. This is unpleasantly reminiscent of U.S. government policy in the early 2000's to stimulate the economy by pumping up real estate prices. The Chinese have greatly modernized their nation in the last 40 years by adopting ideas from the West, but imitation can be taken too far.
Financial websites are filled with speculation about the supposedly dire consequences to everything in the entire world from the drop in Chinese stocks. Not to be a cynic, but bad news is news and good news is trash left at the copy desk. The most likely impact from the turbulence in the Chinese financial markets is an economic slowdown within China, and a possible economic slowdown in the rest of the world. But the Chinese financial system won't collapse. That's because the Chinese government, which owns and/or controls China's banks, can simply print money to recapitalize them. Since the Chinese government controls trillions of dollars of foreign exchange, it can make sure that foreign banks having exposure to Chinese financial institutions aren't left in the lurch. The Chinese can't let their stock market gyrations take down the rest of the world's financial system, or they won't have any export markets. And if the Chinese economy slows, they'll seek to export their way back to prosperity.
Of course, stay vigilant. The economic slowdown in China is one of the major factors pushing down commodities prices. It's possible that secondary and tertiary effects of the drop in commodities (and the currencies of commodities producing nations) could have unanticipated impact on Western financial institutions. (Don't underestimate the potential for major banks to have unexpected exposures from derivatives positions and overly optimistic lending policies.) But, thus far, China's financial isolation has largely protected the rest of the world from China's financial mistakes.
China's stock market has fallen about 30% from its recent high in June 2015. The impact on investors of this dizzying drop has been acutely painful, especially for recent entrants. Many of those purchased on margin, and have taken crushing losses. The Chinese government has announced various measures to pump more money into the stock market and stabilize prices. The verdict on this blatant governmental effort to manipulate prices has yet to come in.
However, the rest of the world hasn't felt much impact from the gyration's of China's stock market. While foreign investors in Chinese stocks have taken losses, it's not that easy for foreigners to invest in Chinese securities. Similarly, it's difficult for foreign banks to do business in China. They wouldn't have that much at stake, since the Chinese government limits the scope of their activities. Although foreign losses in China aren't trivial, they also aren't enough to destabilize the international financial system.
The Chinese government deliberately limited foreign access to the Chinese financial system, fearing the volatility seen in the 1997 Asian financial crisis, when Western capital exited, stage right, as things got stinky. This rapid outflow of capital only made things worse for the developing Asian nations. The last thing the Chinese government wanted to do was indenture itself to Western capital.
Of course, what the Chinese government did on its own was pretty silly. It tried to use monetary and regulatory policy to stimulate the economy by pumping up stock prices. This is unpleasantly reminiscent of U.S. government policy in the early 2000's to stimulate the economy by pumping up real estate prices. The Chinese have greatly modernized their nation in the last 40 years by adopting ideas from the West, but imitation can be taken too far.
Financial websites are filled with speculation about the supposedly dire consequences to everything in the entire world from the drop in Chinese stocks. Not to be a cynic, but bad news is news and good news is trash left at the copy desk. The most likely impact from the turbulence in the Chinese financial markets is an economic slowdown within China, and a possible economic slowdown in the rest of the world. But the Chinese financial system won't collapse. That's because the Chinese government, which owns and/or controls China's banks, can simply print money to recapitalize them. Since the Chinese government controls trillions of dollars of foreign exchange, it can make sure that foreign banks having exposure to Chinese financial institutions aren't left in the lurch. The Chinese can't let their stock market gyrations take down the rest of the world's financial system, or they won't have any export markets. And if the Chinese economy slows, they'll seek to export their way back to prosperity.
Of course, stay vigilant. The economic slowdown in China is one of the major factors pushing down commodities prices. It's possible that secondary and tertiary effects of the drop in commodities (and the currencies of commodities producing nations) could have unanticipated impact on Western financial institutions. (Don't underestimate the potential for major banks to have unexpected exposures from derivatives positions and overly optimistic lending policies.) But, thus far, China's financial isolation has largely protected the rest of the world from China's financial mistakes.
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