Where Is the Stock Market Headed?

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average having dropped over 2,000 points since its peak a week and a half ago, this is the $64,000 (or more) question.  The recent market surge resulted to a large degree from too much optimism.  Market players have selectively focused on the good news (strengthening economy, big corporate tax cut, rising employment levels), while shrugging off the bad news (growing signs of inflation, rising interest rates, and increasing political discord).  Life is like a rose--pretty petals, but thorns as well.  If you ignore the thorns, you'll get an ouchie sooner or later.

So what happens after today's ouchie (1175 points off the Dow)?  The recent market surge seems similar to the valuation-driven bull markets of 1987 and 2000, which resulted in sizable drops of 25% to 30% in the Dow followed by gradual recoveries that took two to three years.  But we should bear in mind an earlier drop off. In 1973, the stock market (measured by the S&P 500) peaked after a long run up, not unlike the one we've had since 2009.  Then, it declined some 40% or more and didn't recover until some seven years later.  The 1970s were also a time of rising inflation and political scandal (Watergate), with the only resignation of a President.  Political turmoil affects economies and stock markets (look at Venezuela, where a lot of folks can't even get a square meal because of political strife).

Expect more market turmoil tomorrow, the next week, the next month, and maybe the next year.  The market could easily drop some more.  We're running out of good news.  There may be little major legislation coming out of Washington, given the political quagmire.  The Fed may go easy on the tightening, but it's not going to cut interest rates simply to support stock prices.  It's already done that, perhaps too much--and today's drop was likely a consequence.  The economy seems to be slowly gaining altitude.  But there's nothing going on that will provide it a quick major boost.  The federal government can't increase the deficit, given its recent deficit-funded splurge with the tax cut bill.  Corporations seem not to be rushing to increase reinvestment of their tax savings.  The Trump administration may spark a trade war with China and other nations.  And the stability of the federal government cannot, in these times that try our souls, be taken for granted.

History teaches that it's not a great idea to sell your stocks in an effort to staunch losses.  People who try to time the market generally fail to get back in and enjoy the resurge that will likely come (although the resurge could be a long time coming). Instead, try to spend less and save more.  Keep your investments diversified.  And don't stop knocking on wood.

The Truth About Getting Rich

Wealth is relative.  That is, people tend to consider themselves wealthy by comparing themselves to those around them.  The fact that most people today live healthier, longer and more comfortable lives than King Henry the Eighth is irrelevant to them.  They care more about where they stand compared to the people next door or the colleague across the hall or the persons featured in today's news.

This means you can feel rich only if you have more wealth than others around you.  That, in turn, means you have to be different from most people.  You can't be just like everyone else and yet be wealthier than everyone else.  But if you see yourself as just an ordinary, middle class person, does that mean you haven't got a chance to be wealthy?

No.  You can be wealthy.  While some wealthy people inherit their riches, most millionaires get there on their own by saving more.  It helps if you earn more.  You'll have more money to work with.  But earning more helps only if you save more.   If you spend all your above average earnings, expect to dine on dog food in your retirement.

You have to resist temptation to spend.  An 856 inch big-screen TV and a 4,300 horsepower SUV won't make you wealthy.  The same goes for $700 shoes and $1,200 handbags.  You have to be comfortable with fewer European vacations and plenty of home cooking.  When people laugh at your frugal ways, you have to focus on getting the last laugh.

Most people won't make it.  They won't become wealthy.  That's inherent in the definition of wealth as a relative concept, and it's also a result of the human tendency toward conformity and group think.  But plenty of middle class people end up having comfortable retirements or better.  In part, that's because of social welfare programs like Social Security and Medicare.  But these programs alone don't provide a good retirement.  You must be responsible and save.

What to do?  It's not complicated.  The main thing is save early, often and in significant amounts, like 15% to 20% of your income.  Invest in a diversified portfolio to increase your chances for good long term returns.  (See http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2009/07/simplest-financial-plan-of-all.html.)   There are a variety of ways to build up your wealth:  http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2009/11/techniques-for-retirement-saving.html.  Look at each dollar you receive as a saving opportunity.  Remember that no matter how much money you make,  in the end you will have a finite income (we all do), and what you spend can't be retrieved.  It's gone. So don't waste that opportunity to save (see http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2010/07/how-to-think-about-saving.html).  Avoid debt as much as possible (see http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2010/07/why-you-should-avoid-debt.html).  Don't give up, even if you have financial setbacks.  Like so many other things in life, quitters aren't winners when it comes to building wealth.

You can have a somewhat decent retirement even if you don't save much, by building up your benefits and eliminating debt. (See http://blogger.uncleleosden.com/2011/01/hope-for-financially-lost.html).  But if you want to climb into the ranks of the wealthy, be different.