The Pandemic Isn't Caused By A Virus

 The novel coronavirus isn't the cause of the pandemic.  It causes the disease called COVID-19.  But the pandemic is caused by politics.  Science-denying President Trump has been and continues to be a leading cause of the pandemic, claiming that the disease is a hoax and making inaction his top priority in addressing the illness.  Vast numbers of his followers, eschewing masks on political grounds and assembling in close quarters, provide the virus with superhighways to all corners of the nation.  Governors, usually Republican, in many states refuse to mandate mask wearing, thus placing their constituents at risk from the most ignorant and partisan among them.  

Vaccines are likely to be available very soon.  But now we learn that anti-vaxxers are teaming up with zealots of QAnon to thwart effective use of medical science in the post-Trump era.  (See https://www.huffpost.com/entry/qanon-anti-vax-coronavirus_n_5fbeb0c0c5b61d04bfa6921a).  If you expect vaccines to end the pandemic, think again.  There's no cure or vaccine for ignorance or recklessness, and ignorance and recklessness abound, driving the pandemic. 

There is hope.  History tells us that in the long run, vaccines have prevailed over lunacy.  But getting to the long run could take a while.  Expect to wear masks in public indefinitely, stock up on paper towels and toilet paper, and make your home as comfy as possible since you'll be spending a lot of time there.  Try to protect yourself against other medical problems.  As multitudes of COVID-19 patients tie up hospital beds and other medical resources, there will be less for heart disease, cancer, and other patients.  Lots of people in addition to COVID-19 patients could die because of determined idiocy.  Try to enlighten the naysayers.  Some anti-vaxxers, like many Black Americans, may understandably mistrust the White-dominated scientific world, which has in so many ways engaged in harmful racism.  Sadly, the virus will do much of the educating.  As some of the unvaccinated die lonely, intubated deaths, appreciation for vaccines will grow and the benefits of science will once again be achieved.

National Guard Called Up To Provide Mortuary Assistance

 In case you were wondering how bad the COVID-19 pandemic is, consider this:  the Texas National Guard has sent troops to El Paso to help the morgues in the city deal with all the people who have died recently.  (See https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/21/us/el-paso-national-guard-morgue-coronavirus-trnd/index.html.)  The National Guard is replacing nine inmates from the county jail who had volunteered to help move bodies.  (See https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/us/el-paso-inmate-covid-bodies-trnd/index.html.)  Back in Washington, President Trump skipped the G20 Summit meeting on the pandemic and played golf instead. (See https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/21/politics/trump-g20-saturday-sessions/index.html.)  It's no wonder America had close to 200,000 new cases of COVID-19 yesterday. (See https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid-19-updates-possible-thanksgiving-case-spike_n_5fb56468c5b66cd4ad413505.) There is hope.  Joe Biden will be sworn in as the new President on January 20, 2021.  Until then, a chill wind will blow.  Hold onto your hats, wear masks, maintain social distances, and stay home as much as possible, because right now, you're pretty much on your own.

Where Will Herd Immunity From Coronavirus Allow Re-Opening?

Recent studies have shown that the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) may be far more infectious than previously thought, perhaps some 50 to 85 times more so (e.g., see https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html).  This evidently is due to the virus' ability to spread while infected persons are asymptomatic, with much of the spread apparently through aerial transmission.  The astonishing celerity of the infection rate means that areas of high infections may well be in the process of acquiring herd immunity.

Herd immunity is immunity of a large segment of a population to a disease agent, such as a virus.  When people become infected, they often produce antibodies that may then insulate them from further infection.  Antibodies don't always provide immunity, and if they do, it may last only a limited time.  But herd immunity, which is said to begin around the time when 50% or more of a population are immune, can stop or largely limit the spread of a disease before many of the non-immune people can be infected.  (In the same sense, high vaccination levels provide substantial protection to the non-vaccinated.)  Herd immunity tends to be most effective when immunity rates are 90% or higher, but lower levels can still be beneficial.

A region locked down by COVID-19 may be able to lift restrictions and stay open if it has herd immunity.  By contrast, a region without herd immunity that lifts restrictions sooner rather than later runs a potentially serious risk of the disease flaring up after people begin to mingle again.  A second and perhaps more rigid lockdown may have to be imposed to avoid tragic death rates.

Where is there herd immunity?  In the areas of greatest infection.  In America, that would be New York City.  Right now, NYC has about 140,000 confirmed cases.  Using 50 as a multiplier, that would imply that some 7 million New York City residents have been infected.  NYC has a population around 8.3 million.  If the large majority of the infected residents produced antibodies, and those antibodies provide immunity, then New York City is pretty likely to have herd immunity.  If that is the case, NYC might be able to re-open when other conditions for re-opening are met (such as clearing the case overload in its hospitals and acquiring enough antibody tests to verify its true infection rate).  It may be able to stay open because herd immunity would protect against re-infection and its economy may start humming again.

States where the levels of confirmed cases are much lower would also have numerous undiagnosed cases, but nowhere enough to acquire herd immunity.  Re-opening soon could involve a serious risk of a second lockdown and even more severe economic pain than they now feel.  Perhaps it's ironic, but the places that are feeling the greatest pain now from the novel coronavirus may be the places that  can re-open and prosper again the soonest.