Could Russia Have Used Donald Trump's Business Problems to Recruit Him?

Recent news stories report that President Donald Trump didn't pay any income taxes in 10 of the 15 years starting with 2000. He reportedly paid only $750 in income taxes in each of 2016 and 2017. (See, e.g., https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/28/politics/donald-trump-taxes-election-2020-joe-biden-debate/index.html.) He supposedly took massive write-offs on his tax returns for business expenses and losses to avoid taxes on hundreds of millions of dollars of income.  These reports, if accurate, raise crucially important questions about whether Trump is the successful businessman he claims to be.  More chillingly, these reports raise questions about whether his business problems gave Russia leverage to recruit him as an agent.

When recruiting spies, intelligence services look for weaknesses.  One potentially useful weakness is financial need or financial stress.  A man with business problems is a possible target.  Could Russia have used Trump's business problems to recruit him as an agent?  Trump may be financially connected to Russia or Russians through Deutsche Bank, which has been a major lender to Trump and his companies. See https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/deutsche-bank-trump.html.  While no firm connection between Trump and Russia or Russians through Deutsche Bank has been established, Deutsche Bank has confirmed it has some of Trump's tax returns. See https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tax-returns-deutsche-bank-relationship-drawing-intense-scrutiny-2019-8-1028482268?op=1#.   So Deutsche Bank may well have known about Trump's massive tax write-offs.  Whether or not Russia knew about Trump's write-offs, it may have known that he needed funding.  U.S. intelligence has said that Russia sought to help Trump get elected in 2016 and is working to get him re-elected this year. What greater intelligence coup could there be than to have one's agent elected the national leader of an adversarial nation? 

So we have to ask whether Trump's business problems gave Russia an opening to recruit him.  The FBI may have been looking into this question, but the fate of its investigation seems to be clouded. See https://www.salon.com/2020/02/18/doj-appears-to-have-abandoned-possible-deutsche-bank-case-involving-russian-money-laundering-scandal_partner/.  Trump has been highly critical of the FBI and his Department of Justice is investigating the FBI's handling of the 2016 Russian interference in the Presidential election and also its investigation into the Clinton Foundation. See https://www.foxnews.com/politics/durham-assumed-parts-of-john-hubers-clinton-foundation-review-source. Is Trump trying to cow the FBI into avoiding a thorough investigation of his links with Russia and Russians?  

America deserves a complete investigation of Trump and his links to Russia and Russians.  That seems unlikely today, with Trump seemingly attempting to strip professionalism from the U.S. Department of Justice and the FBI.  In the meantime, Americans can express their views of all this in the upcoming election.  Will America be truly secure with such a potentially vulnerable man in the White House?  

How Comey is Winning the Credibility Battle With Trump

At first glance, you might think that President Trump and former FBI Director James Comey are at a standoff over who said what during their one-on-one meetings.  It looks like a he said/he said situation.  But Comey wrote memos about the conversations right afterwards.  These tilt the balance in favor of Comey.  While his critics might say his memos were self-serving, it's implausible to think he wove them from whole cloth.  The President doesn't appear to have any memos.

But the crucial factor would appear to be the issue of tape recordings.  The President alluded to recordings, saying "James Comey better hope there are no 'tapes' of our conversations before he starts leaking to the press!"  Comey called Trump's hand by saying he hoped there were recordings.  The Secret Service has now said it doesn't have any recordings--and the Secret Service would be the organization that would handle the recordation of conversations in the White House.  See http://nypost.com/2017/06/12/secret-service-says-they-have-no-comey-tapes/.  If there are no recordings, that would mean that Trump tried to bluff Comey into silence by hinting untruthfully about recordings that don't exist.  Trump's bluff would only undermine his own credibility.  

Of course, it's possible Trump recorded the conversation on a personal device, such as a smart phone. But if he has a recording that contradicts Comey, he surely would have released it by now.  But he hasn't revealed any recording.  Thus, Trump can only have a recording that supports Comey, or he's erased that recording (which would indicate the recording hurt Trump), or he doesn't have a personal recording (which means he lied about there being one).  Whatever is the case, Comey's winning the credibility battle with Trump.

The Big Question For Donald Trump and the Russia Investigation

After James Comey's testimony before the Senate yesterday about President Trump wanting Comey to shut down the FBI's Russia investigation, the most important question is whether the President recorded his conversations with Comey.  If he did record one or more of those conversations, and the conversations tend to confirm Comey's testimony, the President will be in serious trouble.  It is possible to conclude from Comey's testimony that the President wanted to quash the FBI's Russia investigation, something that could amount to obstruction of justice.  Confirmation in recorded conversations could strengthen that conclusion, perhaps by a lot.

One thing's for dang sure:  Special Counsel Robert Mueller will seek any recordings of those and other relevant conversations.  We will find out sooner or later if the recordings exist.  We may also find out whether they once existed but were deleted or destroyed. If the recordings exist and support Comey's testimony, the President will have a big problem.  If the recordings once existed but have been erased or destroyed, the President will have a big problem.  If recordings never existed in the first place, the President would appear to be a liar for having suggested that they did exist, perhaps a liar trying to bluff Comey into silence.

The only good scenario is if the recordings exist and contradict Comey.  But if that were the case, President Trump would surely have released them already.