Can the Republicans Govern?

With the postponement of the House of Representatives' vote on repealing Obamacare twice in two days, one must ask whether the Republicans can govern.  They control Congress and the White House, but they weren't able to fulfill one of their signature promises from last year's elections.  Dissidents on the far right and in the moderate middle couldn't, for different reasons, sign up for the repeal measure.  President Trump, drawing on his dealmaking experience in business, gave them a take it or leave it compromise--and they left it.  In business, if you pass on a good deal and go for a great deal, you can blow the deal.  But in politics, as Trump may be learning, you can often score points with your constituents by going for a great deal and losing the deal instead of compromising.  Politicians get ahead by telling voters what they want to hear--indeed, that's how Donald Trump got himself elected President.  But doing things that leave voters with mixed feelings--like compromising--places politicians at risk in the next round of primaries.  It's better to look and sound good than doing anything that could leave you open to criticism.

Obamacare will now become a permanent part of the American landscape.  Its essential features--universal access to coverage, subsidies or Medicaid for those unable to pay, no exclusion of pre-existing conditions, and substantial coverage of health problems--will form the foundation of American health insurance for the future.  Surely, Obamacare will be modified over time.  But Barack Obama's greatest legacy will live on.

For the Republicans, the Party of No, a more important question is whether they even understand what it takes to govern.  It's necessary to compromise, and to take the heat from compromising.  The Republican Party, like the Democratic Party, is a coalition.  If coalition members don't work together, governance does not happen.  The next great challenge for the Republicans will probably be the budget bill and tax reform, which will have to go hand-in-hand if the Republicans hope to accomplish everything they've promise.  Their problem is they've made too many promises for the amount of tax revenues the federal government will collect.  They can't boost defenses spending by $54 billion, build the Wall at the border with Mexico, cut corporate taxes, cut taxes for the wealthy (which is an unstated but obvious goal of theirs, given that the proposed repeal of Obamacare was more a bill to cut taxes on the wealthy than improve the health insurance system), and rebuild America's infrastructure, all at the same time.  Something has to give.  Either taxes are raised, federal deficit spending increases, and/or the Republicans give up on some of their goals.  The Republicans will have to compromise to accomplish anything.  But their failure to work out a compromise to repeal Obamacare does not portend well for their future.

Although virtually powerless right now, the Democrats must have gotten a lift today.  Their fortunes have started to turn around.  As devastating as their defeat in 2016 was, it's not the end of the world, or of their party.